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time to change?

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发表于 2005-3-12 04:48:00 | 显示全部楼层

回复:time to change?


There are three doors. The probability of a car behind a door is 1/3. You choose one (say door 1). The hoster open a door (call it door 2) without a car behind it, I will then pick door 3. The reason is that, when you choose door 1, you have 1/3 chance to win a car; if  you choose door 2 and door 3 you have 2/3 chance to win that car. It means that after the host open door 2, then there is 2/3 chance that there is a car behind door 3.
 
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